The Punjab Assembly elections will be held in single phase on February 4, 2017. The state has witnessed hectic campaigning by all the main political contenders including SAD, Congress and AAP. Various media agencies have conducted opinion poll surveys to gauge the mood of the voting public to know which way the wind is blowing.
A survey conducted by Huffington Post India and CVoter has indicated that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is set to clinch majority in the state with 100 seats. The opinion poll conducted by VDP Associates has also come up with similar results. The results of the opinion poll conducted by Elections.in has thrown up mixed results. The website had posed the question whether the Aam Aadmi Party will win majority in Punjab Assembly Elections 2017. While 44% of the respondents said yes, 45% said that it will sit in opposition.
Although it is difficult to predict the outcome of Punjab Assembly elections 2017, there is no doubt that the Aam Aadmi Party is going to be a crucial new contender in the race this time. In the last Assembly elections held in 2012, the SAD-BJP alliance won majority. This time around, it faces the challenge of anti-incumbency. Besides, the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party are going to give a tough competition to the ruling alliance.
Following is a detailed break-up of the results of different opinion polls conducted by independent media agencies:
India Today-Axis Opinion Poll on Punjab
According to a pre-poll survey conducted by India Today in association with Axis in December 2016, a down-and-out Congress may finally make a stunning comeback in Punjab in the coming assembly elections in the state which are scheduled to be held exactly a month from now. The opinion poll has given the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress party 56 to 62 seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly. The Akali Dal-BJP combine has been in power in Punjab for two consecutive terms and they are facing a strong anti-incumbency. They may be reduced to just 18 to 22 seats. The other contesting party is BSP, which commands sizeable Dalit votes in the state. It may bag one to four seats.
As revealed by the survey, 33 per cent of the respondents said they want Amarinder Singh as their Chief Minister while incumbent Parkash Singh Badal is favoured by 22 per cent. Kejriwal also makes it to the list by being the choice of 16 per cent of the respondents. Others in the reckoning are Bhagwant Mann (9 per cent), Navjot Singh Sidhu (5 per cent), Sukhbir Badal (3 per cent) and HS Phoolka (1 per cent). A whopping 39 per cent of the respondents said the BJP should end its alliance with the Akali Dal while 28 per cent were okay with the alliance. Punjab will vote in a single-phase election along with Goa on February 4. The results will be counted on March 11.
Punjab Opinion Poll by Lokniti-ABP News
The ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS opinion poll has projected that the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine are going to be locked in a tough contest with the Congress in Punjab and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) coming third. It gave 50-58 out of the total 117 seats to the SAD-BJP alliance, 41-49 to the Congress and 12-18 to the AAP.
Punjab Election 2017 Opinion Poll by HuffPost-C Voter
What should come as a surprise for many, the recently conducted opinion poll by HuffPost-CVoter has indicated an emphatic win for the Aam Admi Party (AAP) in the upcoming Punjab assembly elections in 2017. The AAP is expected to get anything between 94 and 100 seats in the 117-seat Punjab Legislative Assembly. It’s a sharp rise from the poll projection in 2015.
According to the CVoter-HuffPost poll, the Congress Party is in the second position but trailing by a long margin. It is expected to win 8-14 seats in the Assembly, down from the 12-18 seats projected in 2015. The SAD-BJP alliance is a distant third with the party is unlikely to win more than 6-12 seats.